The African Development Bank (AfDB) expects Ghana`s economic system to make bigger via way of means of 4.5% in 2025, pushed via way of means of sturdy mining quarter performance, ongoing economic consolidation, and better hobby rates, consistent with its cutting-edge African Economic Outlook file launched on the AfDB Annual Meetings in Abidjan, Côte d`Ivoire.
The file gives a deep dive into key financial signs throughout member countries — masking GDP boom, inflation, economic stability, debt sustainability, and outside accounts — even as flagging ability dangers to financial balance throughout West Africa.
Looking ahead, the AfDB tasks Ghana`s GDP boom will climb similarly to
.8% in 2026, underpinned via way of means of more potent macroeconomic fundamentals.
Diverging Forecasts
Ghana`s authorities has provided barely extra conservative figures. Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson, withinside the 2025 budget, pegged universal GDP boom at
.0%, with non-oil GDP boom centered at
.8%.
The World Bank, in its April 2025 Africa`s Pulse file, sees Ghana developing via way of means of 3.9% in 2025, growing to
.6% in 2026 and
.8% via way of means of 2027. However, it cautions that weather variability — mainly its effect on cocoa yields and fees in Ghana and Côte d`Ivoire — poses a key drawback chance to those boom projections.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Regional Economic Outlook launched all through the Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., revised Ghana`s 2025 GDP boom forecast to
.0%, in step with the authorities`s estimates. The IMF additionally expects
.8% boom in 2026.
On Ghana`s inflation outlook, the AfDB`s is much less upbeat than the authorities`s. While the Ministry of Finance anticipates end-2025 inflation at 11.9%, and the Bank of Ghana forecasts 12%, the AfDB tasks a better 15.
%. This might nonetheless constitute a drop from April 2025`s inflation of 21% however stays nicely above respectable targets.
The IMF is even extra cautious, projecting inflation at 17.5% for 2025, signaling a possible leave out of the authorities`s inflation goals.
However, the AfDB sees scope for development in 2026, forecasting a go back to single-digit inflation at 9%, supported via way of means of tighter financial coverage, a strong cedi, and easing meals fees.
Fiscal and External Outlook
According to the AfDB, Ghana`s economic deficit is anticipated to slim to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, reflecting the authorities`s economic consolidation force and advanced public economic management. The country`s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to say no to 66.
% in 2025, supported via way of means of ongoing debt restructuring efforts and more potent sales mobilisation.
On the outside front, the modern account stability is forecast at 2.6% of GDP in 2025 and 1.
% in 2026, buoyed via way of means of more potent oil and gold export receipts.
Risks at the Horizon
Despite the upbeat projections, the AfDB warns of great drawback dangers, together with weather alternate impacts, viable coverage reversals, and the ripple results of U.S. tariff hikes. The Bank underscores that keeping the economic consolidation route can be vital to protective the economic system from those vulnerabilities.
For Ghana, maintaining reform momentum and weathering outside shocks can be key because it navigates the route to more potent, extra resilient boom over the subsequent years.